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Alcoa Corp (AA) Fundamental Analysis & AI Grade 2026

AA NYSE Primary Production of Aluminum DE CIK: 0001675149
Update Pending • Analysis: May 6, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Grade
A
73% Confidence
AGREEMENT
B
72% Conf
A
74% Conf

📊 AA Key Takeaways

Revenue: $3.2B
Net Margin: 13.3%
Free Cash Flow: $-298.0M
Current Ratio: 1.48x
Debt/Equity: 0.36x
EPS: $1.60
AI Grade: B with 72% confidence
Alcoa Corp (AA) receives a A fundamental grade with 73% confidence from our AI analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $3.2B, net profit margin of 13.3%, and return on equity (ROE) of 6.2%, Alcoa Corp demonstrates strong fundamentals in the Market sector. Below is our complete AA stock analysis for 2026.

Is Alcoa Corp (AA) a Good Investment?

Claude

Alcoa demonstrates solid revenue growth (+7.9% YoY) and reasonable profitability margins (13.3% net margin) with manageable debt (0.36x D/E). However, negative operating cash flow of -$179M and free cash flow of -$298M present a critical concern, indicating the company is burning cash despite reported earnings, raising questions about capital efficiency and sustainability in this cyclical commodity business.

ChatGPT

Alcoa's latest fundamentals show a meaningful recovery in earnings power, with revenue growth, solid operating profitability, and strong returns on equity and assets. The balance sheet appears manageable with moderate leverage and positive free cash flow, but the business remains exposed to cyclical margin swings and working-capital pressure typical of commodity producers.

Alcoa Corp Key Strengths (AA)

Claude
  • + Revenue growth of 7.9% YoY in cyclical aluminum sector demonstrates operational momentum
  • + Strong debt management with 0.36x debt-to-equity ratio and 14.3x interest coverage ratio provides financial stability
  • + Reasonable operating margin of 15.6% and net margin of 13.3% reflect profitable core operations
  • + Solid liquidity position with $1.4B cash and 1.48x current ratio
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue and net income are growing while diluted EPS rebounded sharply, indicating improved operating performance
  • + Balance sheet leverage is moderate with 0.40x debt-to-equity and interest coverage of 6.7x
  • + Free cash flow is positive and liquidity is acceptable with $1.60B in cash and a 1.44x current ratio

AA Stock Risks: Alcoa Corp Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Negative operating cash flow (-$179M) and free cash flow (-$298M) despite positive earnings signal potential working capital issues or capital intensity problems
  • ! Low return metrics (ROE 6.2%, ROA 2.6%) indicate modest capital efficiency and value creation
  • ! Quick ratio of 0.88x suggests tight short-term liquidity and potential working capital stress
  • ! Cyclical aluminum industry exposure creates vulnerability to economic downturns and commodity price volatility
ChatGPT
  • ! Profitability is still moderate for a cyclical producer, with an 8.3% operating margin and 4.4% FCF margin
  • ! Quick ratio of 0.87x suggests near-term liquidity is less robust once inventories are excluded
  • ! Earnings quality could be vulnerable to aluminum price cycles, energy costs, and other input-cost volatility

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating cash flow trend and composition - critical to reconcile with positive net income
  • * Working capital changes and cash conversion cycle efficiency
  • * Free cash flow sustainability and capital expenditure requirements
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin and free cash flow conversion
  • * Net debt, liquidity, and interest coverage

Alcoa Corp (AA) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$3.2B
Net Income
$425.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$1.60
Free Cash Flow
$-298.0M
Total Assets
$16.6B
Cash Position
$1.4B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Alcoa Corp presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

AA Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 15.6%
Net Margin 13.3%
ROE 6.2%
ROA 2.6%
FCF Margin -9.3%

AA vs Market Sector: How Alcoa Corp Compares

How Alcoa Corp compares to Market sector averages

Net Margin
AA 13.3%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
AA Sector
ROE
AA 6.2%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
AA Sector
Current Ratio
AA 1.5x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
AA Sector
Debt/Equity
AA 0.4x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
AA Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Alcoa Corp Stock Overvalued? AA Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Alcoa Corp has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Market sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
6.2%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
13.3%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.36x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Alcoa Corp Balance Sheet: AA Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.48x
Quick Ratio
0.88x
Debt/Equity
0.36x
Debt/Assets
58.6%
Interest Coverage
14.26x
Long-term Debt
$2.4B

AA Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

AA 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $12.2B, Net Income -$1.1B, EPS $-6.07. Year 2022: Revenue $12.5B, Net Income -$170.0M, EPS $-0.91. Year 2023: Revenue $12.5B, Net Income $429.0M, EPS $2.26. Year 2024: Revenue $12.5B, Net Income -$123.0M, EPS $-0.68. Year 2025: Revenue $12.8B, Net Income -$651.0M, EPS $-3.65.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Alcoa Corp's revenue has shown modest growth of 6% over the 5-year period. The most recent EPS of $-3.65 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

AA Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-9.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

AA Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Alcoa Corp including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $3.2B $425.0M $1.60
Q3 2025 $2.9B $90.0M $0.38
Q2 2025 $2.9B $20.0M $0.11
Q1 2025 $2.6B -$252.0M $-1.41
Q3 2024 $2.6B $90.0M $0.38
Q2 2024 $2.7B $20.0M $0.11
Q1 2024 $2.6B -$231.0M $-1.30
Q3 2023 $2.6B -$168.0M $-0.94

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Alcoa Corp Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
-$179.0M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$119.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$27.0M
Returned to shareholders

AA SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Alcoa Corp (CIK: 0001675149)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
May 12, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
May 12, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
May 12, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
May 12, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
May 12, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about AA

What is the AI rating for AA?

Alcoa Corp (AA) has a Combined AI Grade of A from Claude (B) and ChatGPT (A) with 73% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are AA's key strengths?

Claude: Revenue growth of 7.9% YoY in cyclical aluminum sector demonstrates operational momentum. Strong debt management with 0.36x debt-to-equity ratio and 14.3x interest coverage ratio provides financial stability. ChatGPT: Revenue and net income are growing while diluted EPS rebounded sharply, indicating improved operating performance. Balance sheet leverage is moderate with 0.40x debt-to-equity and interest coverage of 6.7x.

What are the risks of investing in AA?

Claude: Negative operating cash flow (-$179M) and free cash flow (-$298M) despite positive earnings signal potential working capital issues or capital intensity problems. Low return metrics (ROE 6.2%, ROA 2.6%) indicate modest capital efficiency and value creation. ChatGPT: Profitability is still moderate for a cyclical producer, with an 8.3% operating margin and 4.4% FCF margin. Quick ratio of 0.87x suggests near-term liquidity is less robust once inventories are excluded.

What is AA's revenue and growth?

Alcoa Corp reported revenue of $3.2B.

Does AA pay dividends?

Alcoa Corp pays dividends, with $27.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find AA SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Alcoa Corp (CIK: 0001675149) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is AA's EPS?

Alcoa Corp has a diluted EPS of $1.60.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined grade reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

What is AA's fundamental grade?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in June 2026, Alcoa Corp has a A grade with 73% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.

Is AA stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for AA: ROE of 6.2% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 13.3% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

What is AA's AI grade for 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Alcoa Corp a combined A grade for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is AA's free cash flow?

Alcoa Corp's operating cash flow is $-179.0M, with capital expenditures of $119.0M. FCF margin is -9.3%.

How does AA compare to other Market stocks?

Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 13.3% (avg: 12%), ROE 6.2% (avg: 15%), current ratio 1.48 (avg: 1.8).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 6, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI